I was the dealer and here is my Hand:
$20 big blind. I raised $50 Pre-Flop. One or two opponents called.FLOP:
One opponent, Mr B, raised to $400. Then I raised my bet to $1400. At this point, my guess was that
1) I still have the higher hand, 2) he has two clubs, expecting to make a flush.
Obviously, my $1000 raise was to drive him off the game. However, he called by matching up by extra $1000.TURN:
My opponent called for All-in: $2100.Then I was quite sure that his hand could also make a pair, either with the 8 or 9 out there. I did not think it was a straight at that point, quite sure he was still waiting for the flush. Girls' instinct.
I still had the highest hand at that point without the river. So, if he would not have made the flush or getting the 8 or 9 (3-of-a-kind), I would have won this hand. Therefore, I called for $2100, which makes a lot of sense to me because I bet $3500 for another $3600 with well over 50% of chance of winning.
RIVER:
DAMN IT! HE MADE THE FLUSH!!!!
Eventually his hand was:
So my guess was absolutely correct. His actual outs that could beat me were:
1) any clubs to make a flush(7 cards, because I have one club myself.)
2) all 6 or J to make a straight (6 cards, two already counted in Clubs)
3) any 9 to make a 3-of-a kind (2 cards)
Total: 15 cards
All other 29 cards would have made me the winner, but I lost $3550 in this one hand.
Folks, did I play it right?
14 則留言:
i've seen this all the time... one river changes everything :P.... fun of poker isn't it???
Hi Erica~
Just wandering around and see your blog~
For this hand:
1) Your calculation on the odds are not right - I am assuming you are talking about the odds before River card so the cards that could beat you are:
1. 8 clubs (excluding the K clubs you have, 2 clubs he holds and 2 clubs on the flop)to make the flush
2. 6 or J to make the straight (6 cards, you already include 6 and J of the clubs in 1. already)
3. 9 to make 3 of a kind (2 cards)
Total: 16 cards
I think what you are doing is right, but I would raise more like at least $100 - $200 for pocket kings pre-flop because you are trying to drive people out before they can see the flop, and you can tell how well the cards your opponents are holding. Of course, you can slow play by check-raise but instead of doing that you raise $50 which is actually not a good bet - any mid-hands will call so that actually weakens your advantage on pocket Ks.
Another funny thing is after the flop - he raise, you re-raise then Mr.B calls. Additional guess you missed could be: He got pocket 9 or 10s which makes 3 of a kind. He calls all-in at the turn meaning he could have that hand - I am actually surprise someone will call all-in to chase a flush (kinda....brave)but I am a conservative player so I may fold - again, it's poker so everything is possible :) You should watch more WPT shows :) people always save by the river.
You are not just looking at the possiblities but also need to look at the pot-odds also - you can learn all those in some poker books so don't want to waste your space/time here :)
Good luck next time~ :)
P.S. I am a friend of Kafka :)
dc: he bluffs a lot and he tends to bet big in mid-hands. i folded many many Many times without catching him bluff. so i thought that was the one hand i really wanted to see his cards. again, i did not think he had two pairs by knowing the way he bet: bet big on mid-hand, bet small on higher hand.
$50 pre-flop was a little small, but a lot of people folded while calling for big blinds. at that point, i was just thinking to keep people in the game. too greedy?
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Great! This is what makes a good blog, shares bits and pieces of life ...
It's a long term game ... guess if the same pool of players you deal with ... eventually the ones with the better skill benefits
The raise preflop should be three times the big blind. Also you should tell us who else was calling. A raise to $400 should trigger an all in by YOU, unless youthink he has pocket 10s or something. You want to go all in as early as possible so the odds are in your favor.
Nonetheless, I think your opponent sucks if he calls pre flop with two lowly clubs and only raises you $1000 more. He should have gone all in to put the pressure on you. You should play more with him. haha. The odds will be in your favor.
Can´t wait to play in Hong Kong.
i think you should not be counting probability as if you know his hand. you should count the number of hands that could defeat yours.
1) the only way to enhance you hand is if there is a K (2K) in the hidden cards.
probability =
(13x2+1)/(45&2) (assuming you do not know what the folded cards are)
-- so you can almost assume that is not going to happen
2) the hands that are stronger than yours are
22, 99, TT, AA, 29, 2T, 9T, which basically wins over you regardless of what cars will be turned over.
3) then the cases where there are significant chances of enhancing. eg
CC, 78, 8J, JQ, etc
4) tally the hands that are stronger than your 2+3, against those that are weaker than yours. i.e. all the rest, eg 33.
then you know if you made the right call.
Regardless of whether you did the right thing, if your opponent always plays like this he will probably lose in the long run.
That really depends on what type of players you are - play tight or loose. There's no definite right or wrong in poker, the strategy change everytime with different people at different times.
For the pre-flop if you want to take the chance to do slow play (keep ppl in the game), you should check instead of raising $50 - it's too little to give people impression that you have strong cards to draw people out (so that you can have better odds on your side as what Josekin said), or not small enough to fool people that you have weak cards.
I can't tell if he sucks or not because he is playing loose - for me I would call $50 if I have his cards just to see the flop anyways (comparing to the way you guys are raising hundreds and thousands). If you want to drive him out, I would call him all-in right after the flop but before the turn - that would give me more pressure. Again, he may still call regardless because he is playing loose, but definitely better than calling all-in after the 8 comes out. Anything after that would be out of your control - overall poker is 90% strategy + 10% luck.
Remember - One good thing about playing tight is that people won't catch you when you are really bluffing :) Good luck~
Forgot to mention:
2 books (comics) that you may find really really interesting:
賭博默示錄/賭博破戒錄 - 福本伸行
欺詐遊戲 Liar Game - 甲斐谷忍
Highly recommend if you like "mind" games. :)
dc is right !
at turn when he push all in, you are around 60s something percent winning/leading with one card to come
and poker is a people game ! rmb that =]
Read your article on the July 28 edition of appledaily (and I agree with you). Interesting blog.
I'm not a Texas hold'em expert by any stretch of imagination, but I like watching WPT, so here are my observations...
1) Your $50 raise pre-flop was a bit low for $20 blind. Pocket Aces and Kings are sometimes hard to play. On one hand, you want to scare the weaker hands away, but you don't want to scare everyone away and end up taking the small pot either. Nonetheless, 2 1/2 times blind is a cheap call for someone with a suited connector or something similar - like Mr. B - to see the flop. Had you raised $100 or $200, I'm very sure you wouldn't have seen the flop and would have taken the pot right there.
2) Post flop, you seemed to have discounted the possibility of Mr. B holding pocket 2's, 9's, 10's, and particularly 2 cards to make an open-ended straight draw. However, you didn't really make a mistake in raising $1000; IMHO, Mr.B was loose calling your raise with nothing but a flush draw.
3) With an 8 coming out of the turn and Mr.B moving all-in, my gut reaction was that he was holding JQ (clubs or off suit), and you would have been drawing dead on the river. Knowing what Mr.B was holding, I gave him credit for going all-in. That was definitely a gutsy move with an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw.
I don't think you had done anything terribly wrong. Yeah, you should have raised a little more pre-flop, and perhaps if you'd considered the possibility of Mr.B making a straight at the turn, you might not have called. But these kind of cards happen all the time even with professional players. I've seen player winning pots with one and only one out card at the river. This is still a game of chance.
唔好意思, 我link咗你呢篇有关Texas hold'em 既文响我個blog度. 如有反对, 請通知!
A daily reader
yeh you should have folded when he raised..
chance of getting an extra K for you is much lower than him getting another club with the correct assumption and reality that he does already have 2 clubs and 2 clubs on the table
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